Interpretation of the Report in March 2025: Steady Growth in Demand for the Steel - Structure Industry in March
Core Views
Demand - side: With the temperature rising and the acceleration of special - purpose bonds, the resumption of work at construction sites has driven the release of demand for steel structures, and the daily consumption of the industry has increased by 4.55% month - on - month. In March, 38.2% of the enterprises had a month - on - month increase in new orders, with an increase rate of 24.72%. However, the slow - down in the approval of wind - power projects has partially offset the increase in demand. The policy subsidies for pre - fabricated buildings and the acceleration of the construction of industrial plants are the main driving forces for demand.
Inventory and Price: Steel prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Downstream purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand, and the proportion of direct purchases from steel mills increased. The raw - material inventory of the sample enterprises increased by 1.82% month - on - month. Merchants were cautious, and the production saturation remained high. The overall inventory increased by 1.82% month - on - month, showing a slight accumulation.
Analysis by Variety
Section - steel: In February, the price of section - steel fluctuated with an upward trend. The resumption of production by billet - adjusting rolling mills drove the demand for billets, but the high inventory restrained the purchasing rhythm. In March, the price is expected to rise slightly. With both supply and demand increasing, there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment.
Medium - plate: In February, the price of medium - plate fluctuated at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate reached more than 90%. In March, the price may rise with fluctuations. The inflection point of inventory - reduction has appeared, and the demand in the peak season is expected to be good.
Hot - rolled steel: In February, affected by the delay in the resumption of work, the price of hot - rolled steel fluctuated. In March, attention should be paid to the implementation of the policies of the Two Sessions and the impact of anti - dumping in Vietnam. The price is expected to rise first and then fall.
Welded - pipe: In February, the increase in raw - material prices drove the pipe - making factories to maintain prices. In March, the acceleration of downstream construction may drive the price to move upward with fluctuations.
Industry Data and Risks
Drag from the Real - Estate Industry: In 2024, the development investment in the real - estate industry decreased by 10.6%, the newly - started area decreased by 23%, the completed - area decreased by 27.7%, and the high vacancy rate restricted the demand for steel.
Key Variables: Policy subsidies (for pre - fabricated buildings), the construction progress of industrial plants, and the release rhythm of special - purpose bonds.
Conclusion
In March, the demand for steel structures recovered steadily, but the contraction of the wind - power industry and the weakness of the real - estate industry exerted pressure. Overall, steel prices were mainly volatile, and medium - plate and welded - pipe may perform relatively strongly. It is necessary to be alert to the risk of insufficient domestic - demand quality and the risk of overseas - trade - policy changes.